The economic situation is characterised by increased optimism, despite worsening geopolitical risks. Falling inflation will persuade central banks to start cutting key interest rates this spring and summer. We continue to believe that a soft landing is possible and that the slowdown in the world economy will be mild. The Swedish economic outlook has also improved; after a 0.4 per cent decline last year, GDP will increase slightly this year. In 2025, GDP will grow by almost 3 per cent ‒ well above trend. Sweden’s Riksbank will cut its policy rate in May, and government fiscal policy will also support growth in 2025.