Nordic Outlook: Growth and markets withstand challenges

The world economy showed surprising resilience last year, but the outlook is challenged by constant new moves from the White House. We believe that growth will hold up without gaining traction, and that global GDP will grow by just over 3 per cent in both 2026 and 2027. Rapid structural shifts in the economy and political tensions both within and between countries are placing heightened demands on politicians and decision-makers. Fiscal policy lends support despite high debt and continued rate cuts by the Fed, while other central banks, such as the ECB and the Riksbank, stay on hold. In Sweden, growth has clearly accelerated even before the fiscal stimulus measures for 2026 have begun to take effect, and inflation falls well below the target this year, even excluding the reduction in food VAT.