Nordic Outlook: Hope rises amid autumn uncertainty

Uncertainty is high, but growth and markets continue to show resilience and strong adaptability. The rise in oil prices is being contained by factors including new transport routes, that the Strait of Hormuz ‘’leaks’’ and lower Chinese oil imports. At the same time, the wider price gap between crude oil and different distillates shows that the market remains under strain. The growth outlook is broadly intact; if anything, revisions are on the upside. We see limited second-round inflation effects from higher energy prices, but central banks are under pressure and choosing somewhat different paths: the Fed remains on hold this year, while the ECB raises rates. Swedish growth is gaining momentum, and we revise our already optimistic GDP forecast for this year up by one tenth to 2.7 per cent, followed by 2.9 and 2.0 per cent in 2027 and 2028, respectively. The Riksbank will remain on hold for now but raise the policy rate in March and September next year.