Growth will be anaemic in 2023 and 2024, but the global economy will still experience a relatively soft landing as the United States − among other countries − avoids a recession. Inflation is falling, and the important question for central banks is no longer how many key interest rate hikes remain, but when their first rate cuts will occur. However, the economic outlook will continue to be weighed down by geopolitical turmoil, extreme weather, increased trade barriers and a flare-up of subsidy competition between the US and the European Union. The economic outlook for China has also deteriorated. In Sweden, GDP will fall by 1.2 per cent this year due to weak households and a deep decline in housing construction, followed by essentially zero growth in 2024. The Riksbank is being squeezed by the weak krona, but falling inflation suggests that its September policy rate hike will be the last.