Nordic Outlook: Stable growth despite challenges from all sides

Global growth will continue to be just over 3 per cent annually in 2025‒2026. We have raised our growth forecast for the United States but lowered our projection for the euro area, which is weighed down by a weak Germany. The big risk to growth is that politics, with Donald Trump and the US in the spotlight, will deliberately or accidentally worsen the conditions for economic growth, the disinflation process and financial markets. Swedish economic growth will accelerate from 0.5 per cent in 2024 to 3.1 per cent in 2026, when consumption finally picks up. Core inflation will climb early in 2025 but fall during the second half. The Riksbank will cut its policy rate to 2 per cent in May. Fiscal policy will remain expansionary in 2026, and public sector finances will weaken.