Nordic Outlook: Sustained growth despite an uncertain world

Economic developments continue to defy political uncertainty, war and conflicts. We are forecasting sustained annual growth of just over 3 per cent during 2024–2026. However, the world economy is growing more slowly than before the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outlook is fragmented. The United States will continue to show economic strength, Chinese growth is decelerating, and the euro area is struggling with both structural and cyclical problems. The fight against inflation has largely been won, and many central banks are cutting their key interest rates. In Sweden, the recovery has been delayed as households remain hesitant about spending but will pick up speed in 2025 and 2026. We expect Swedish GDP to grow by 0.5 per cent in 2024, 2.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026. The Swedish Riksbank will lower its policy rate to 2 per cent.