Nordic Outlook: The global economy in a race against time

Geopolitical uncertainty, now with a focus on the conflict in the Middle East, and rising energy prices are weighing on growth prospects. The Strait of Hormuz needs to be reopened to avoid an escalation of the negative effects. While overall inflation is rising, the effects on core inflation and growth are uncertain; we do not foresee any repetition of the inflation shock of 2021–2022, and there are also counterforces supporting the economy. Central banks are awaiting the effects of the supply shock. The Fed implements a rate cut, but not until December, and the ECB makes a precautionary hike this summer. The Swedish GDP forecast for 2026 has been trimmed to 2.6 per cent from 3.0 per cent in January. We maintain our forecast of 2.9 per cent growth for 2027. With low inflationary pressure and resource utilisation, the Riksbank will not implement a hike until the end of 2027.