Nordic Outlook Update: Glimmers of light despite slowing economy

The world economy is slowing down but showing unexpected resilience, mainly in the US. Global GDP increases by around 3 per cent annually during 2025–2027 – slightly above our previous forecast. The trade agreements of the summer and autumn resulted in high tariffs, although not as high as feared. Expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, combined with optimistic financial markets, lend support but also create risks. Inflation is headed towards target levels in most major economies, albeit at slightly varying paces. In Sweden, the recovery in household consumption and GDP is finally picking up, and GDP grows by almost 3 per cent in 2026 and 2027. These are some of the conclusions drawn in SEB’s macroeconomic forecast Nordic Outlook Update.